There undoubtedly will be a one-off gesture towards one nation Conservatism in the forthcoming budget, possibly reducing pensions tax relief or "entrepreneurs" relief, or even both, but the idea that Tories are "for the left behind", and will use tax reforms to "spend in the new Tory seats of the north" is unlikely (The Tories say they are for the left behind: we`ll soon see, 11/02/20). Johnson and Cummings will want to display both their control over the party, and loyalty to new Tory voters, especially in the first budget of a five year parliament, but as Toynbee says, "Treasury orthodoxy will prevail" in the long-term. Believing what Tory ministers say, especially pre-election, is not always wise; indeed, even after the election, as is shown by Rishi Sunak `s comment about the EU not allowing free ports on the same day 82 of them in the EU were condemned by Brussels for aiding "the financing of terrorism, money laundering and crime (EU cracks down on free ports for role in corruption and crime, 11/02/20).
What Toynbee omits to mention is the likelihood of Javid announcing in the budget the sale of the remaining 62% of shares in RBS, widely predicted to be back to making billions. What better way to appease wealthy dissenters in the City than selling them shares in financial institutions at bargain-basement prices? Such mis-selling, after all, is not new to the chancellor, having been on the board of Deutsche Bank in the run-up to the 2008-9 financial crash, the bank which was fined $7.2bn by the US Department of Justice for having "contributed directly to an international financial crisis"!
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